Macro-economy is basically stable; consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.52% compared to December 2022, mainly due to the increase in the price of goods and services according to the law of consumption on Tet holiday; major balances of the economy are secured... The currency, foreign exchange and exchange rate markets are more stable; ensure the liquidity of the banking system, meet the payment and cash withdrawal needs of people and businesses before and during Tet.

1. GDP growth exceeds forecasts: strong growth industries

Regarding the economic structure in 2022, the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector accounts for 11.88%; industry and construction accounted for 38.26%; service sector accounted for 41.33%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 8.53%. Regarding GDP use in 2022, final consumption increased by 7.18% compared to 2021, contributing 49.32% to the overall growth rate; accumulated assets increased by 5.75%, contributing 22.59%; exports of goods and services increased by 4.86%; imports of goods and services increased by 2.16%; the difference between import and export of goods and services contributes 28.09%...

Labor productivity of the whole economy in 2022 at current prices is estimated at 188.1 million dong/laborer (equivalent to 8,083 USD/worker, an increase of 622 USD compared to 2021). Vietnam GDP is forecasted to grow by 6.2 - 6.7% in 2023.

Seasonal rice yield is quite good; livestock production has developed stably, epidemics are well controlled. As of January 15, 2023, the whole country cultivated 1,882.1 thousand hectares of winter-spring rice, equaling 99.9% of the same period last year. Fishery production in January 2023 was estimated at 592.1 thousand tons, up 0.2% over the same period last year, including aquaculture production and catches.

Total retail sales of consumer goods and services in January 2023 was estimated at 544.8 trillion VND, up 5.2% over the previous month and 20% over the same period last year.

Cargo transportation in January was estimated at 202.8 million tons of transported goods, up 5.4% over the previous month and 16.2% over the same period last year; rotation reached 34 billion tons/km, down 14.9% and up 5.3%...

2. Some sectors show signs of decline

The index of industrial production (IIP) in January 2023 was estimated to decrease by 14.6% over the previous month and down by 8% compared to the same period last year. In which, compared to the same period last year, the processing and manufacturing industry decreased by 9.1%, reducing 7 percentage points in the overall increase; mining industry decreased by 4.9%, decreased by 0.8 percentage points; electricity production and distribution decreased by 3.4%, down 0.3 percentage points.

In 2022, FDI inflows into Vietnam are still very stable (realized FDI in 10 years), but in January, FDI figures showed the first decline. As of January 20, 2023, the total newly registered capital, adjusted and contributed capital to buy shares and purchase capital contributions (GVMCP) of foreign investors reached nearly US$1.69 billion, down 19.8% over the same period last year. in 2022. Realized capital of foreign investment projects is estimated at 1.35 billion USD, down 16.3% over the same period in 2022.

Compared to the same period last year, the export turnover of goods in January 2023 decreased by 21.3%, of which: the domestic economic sector decreased by 27.1%, the foreign-invested sector (including crude oil) decreased by 19. %. From the opposite direction, the import turnover of goods in January 2023 was estimated at 21.48 billion USD, down 21.3% over the previous month, of which: The domestic economic sector gained 7.48 billion USD, down 26.6%; FDI sector reached 14 billion USD, down 18.1%.

3. Interest rates and currencies

The US dollar in the world market fell in the context that US inflation in December 2022 increased by 6.5% over the same period last year. As of January 31, 2023, the US dollar index on the international market reached 101,915 points, down 1.35 points (-1.31%) percent from the previous month. Domestically, the average US dollar price on the free market was around 23,440 VND/USD, closing on the last trading day of January 2023 at 23,445 VND/USD, down 165 VND compared to December 2022. (-0.7%).

Under the pressure of inflation, central banks around the world had to raise interest rates, and it seems that by the end of January 2023 this trend will show signs of cooling down, but not stopping. Vietnam is also not out of the common trend of the whole world with tight monetary policy. 

However, in the last month of 2022, the tightening trend was no longer as intense as before, but there were signs of easing, reflected in the strong potential injection in the last weeks of December and continued in the coming months. January 2023.

4. Conclusion

Looking back at economic development results in 2022, many National Assembly deputies and economic experts said that in order to create momentum for sustainable development in 2023, more attention should be paid to macroeconomic stability, control inflation well, invest with focus and focus in the fields of health and education. Risks of economic recession, conflicts between Russia and Ukraine and the disruption of supply chains of many basic goods, the trend of confrontational alliances between superpowers, etc. will be factors that continue to affect the economy this year.

Source: CSI Research